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Mortgage rates are the story of this market. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on October 28, 2026, and prime at most major banks is 4.70%. The next decision comes December 9, 2026. Here is what that means for anyone buying, renewing, or weighing fixed against variable.
The best rates we could verify today
| Rate | Best verified | RBC posted |
|---|---|---|
| 5-year fixed | 4.44% — Nesto (insured) | 5.14% |
| 3-year fixed | 4.54% — Nesto (insured) | 5.09% |
| 5-year variable | 3.66% — Nesto (insured, prime − 1.04%) | 4.40% |
Rates checked November 8, 2026 — mortgage rates change often; confirm with the lender before you commit.
Why the Bank raised
In its October 28 statement, the Bank pointed to three things.
- Inflation: headline CPI is near 3% and core measures are near 2%. Food and housing-related prices have pushed costs up as tariff effects on production costs pass through. The Bank expects headline CPI to average ~3.5% for the rest of 2026, about 3% in 2027, before returning to near its 2% target by mid-2028.
- Growth: GDP is firmer than expected — up 3.3% in Q2, with ~2% growth expected in Q3 — as stronger US demand and new trade deals lift the outlook.
- Jobs: unemployment at ~6.5% is broadly matching the Bank’s earlier forecasts.
Put plainly: the Bank is convinced higher rates are needed to keep inflation in check, and it believes the economy can absorb them.
Fixed vs variable right now
A variable rate follows the policy rate directly: when it rises, your payment or interest portion follows within weeks.
Fixed mortgage rates don’t track the policy rate — they track 5-year Government of Canada bond yields, which have risen since July as global financial conditions tightened. As for December 9: bond markets put the odds of another 25-basis-point hike at 45%, against 55% for a hold, and imply a hike is almost certain by January 27 (Nesto, November 6, 2026). The Bank itself says “there could be a need to increase the policy rate further, but given uncertainties, Governing Council agreed to proceed carefully.”
Projections are other people’s best guesses, collected here — they change with every data release.
What to watch
- The Bank of Canada’s next rate decision: December 9, 2026.
- The US Federal Reserve’s meeting: December 8–9, 2026.
- The next CPI print — inflation is the number that moves the Bank.
Run your own payment at any of these rates with the Canadian Mortgage Calculator — put in the rate, the price, and your down payment, and see the monthly payment, the stress-test rate, and the CMHC premium.
This page is refreshed as rates move, so the numbers above are the latest we have verified.
General information only — not financial advice.